It’s been almost a year since Google rolled out its AI-generated search feature AI Overviews, and publishers still know very little about how it’s impacting their referral traffic.
Last week Google introduced AI Mode, an experimental feature for search, which lets users ask follow-up questions without leaving the page, as part of an overall AI Overviews update, which will now be powered by its Gemini 2.0 AI model.
AI Overviews, which provides generated summaries of information from multiple sources to answer a user’s search query, will also be available to more people, including teens and users not signed into Google accounts. AI Mode, which resembles the same kind of experience provided by Perplexity or ChatGPT Search, is only being made available to Google AI One Premium subscribers.
But the impact of this update — and AI Overviews in general — remains unclear, according to conversations with seven media execs. Three of them told Digiday they haven’t been able to see a change in referral traffic because of AI Overviews. And the continued lack of transparency from Google is making more publishers uneasy.
Google doesn’t separate AI Overviews click-throughs from regular search referral traffic in Google Analytics or Google Search Console, leaving publishers in the dark and making third-party reporting through vendors like Parse.ly or Chartbeat impossible.
It would help if Google did share that data, “but [I’m] not sure we will like what we see,” said one exec, who requested to speak anonymously. With “limited attribution” and answers to users’ queries shown right on the page, the exec said they assume AI Overviews doesn’t lend itself to more click-throughs than regular search results.
“Google makes it impossible to measure,” they added. “But I expect [these updates] to be problematic for driving traffic.”
Naturally, publishers have long been subject to unexpected Google updates, but its SEO updates have historically released at more regular intervals, meaning that publishers were able to develop a playbook for how they’d adapt to fluctuations. A Google spokesperson noted that last week’s announcement was an AI Overviews “upgrade,” not an SEO update.”
But since AI has been in the mix, updates and communications from Google have been more “erratic” said another media exec.
The opacity on AI Overviews referral traffic is a big problem, they added, because it puts them on the back foot when it comes to preparing for Google’s future AI iterations.
A Semrush spokesperson told Digiday that the software and analytics company can’t analyze AI Overviews referral traffic or measure its impact on publishers’ traffic.
But Semrush analysis shows that AI Overviews is being shown in more search results, specifically in response to queries where users are asking questions or seeking specific information. That means more content is being summarized by Google’s AI feature.
In September 2024, 6% of those “informational keywords” users typed into Google search generated AI Overviews. This month, that had grown to 11.37% — a 91% increase within six months, according to Semrush. The number of keywords featuring AI Overviews also increased from 11.6 million to 18.9 million.
A Google spokesperson said Google has made updates since AI Overviews went live last May to add more links and make it easier for people to click those links and visit sites. Those changes include adding in-line links and a right-hand display on desktop that shows links when previously they would have appeared at the bottom of the AI Overviews feature. The spokesperson also said people who click from search result pages with AI Overviews spend more time on those sites. Google did not provide data to back this up.
“AI Overviews are one of our most popular Search features, making it easier for people to find information, and opening up new opportunities for people to connect with creators and businesses on the web. Google sends billions of clicks to sites across the web every day; as we evolve our products with new AI experiences, we intend for this long-established value exchange with websites to continue,” the Google spokesperson said.
Some publishers don’t see search referral change after Overviews
Publishers have been concerned about Google’s efforts to add more artificial intelligence into its search experience for a while — at least since AI Overviews rolled out last May. Publishers feared that the feature, which was originally called Search Generative Experience, would crater referral traffic (and revenue) coming from Google to publishers’ sites. AI Overviews pushes links to their sites further down the page, and generated answers mean users don’t need to click on a link to a site to get the information they’re seeking.
Though three media execs told Digiday they haven’t noticed any changes in Google Discover or Search traffic as a result of the rollout of AI Overviews — or from these updates. Overall, Google Discover and Google Search referral traffic to publishers’ sites increased last year, according to data from publisher analytics firm Chartbeat.
“We haven’t detected any material changes in traffic at the aggregate level,” said Paul Bannister, chief strategy officer at Raptive, which sells ads for independent sites.
In a Q4 2024 earnings call on Feb. 25, Ziff Davis CEO Vivek Shah said that AI Overviews results were present in just 12% of the company’s top queries. The company’s analysis of year-over-year click through rates — specifically comparing search queries with similar ones that now include AI Overviews — showed the rate “remained unchanged.” (Ziff Davis did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)
However, Josh Jaffe, AI and media consultant and former president of media at Ingenio, said large publishers with legacy publications and brand recognition may be more insulated from the impact of AI Overviews on their search referral traffic. But some smaller publishers are seeing “the real annihilation of traffic.”
One publisher Jaffe is working with to help recover their traffic saw a more than 50% decline in its search referral traffic since AI Overviews rolled out last year.
Now that AI Overviews is being expanded to more users, it’s “common sense” that those AI-generated summaries will come up more often, Jaffe said. “I don’t think portfolio publishers are going to be untouched by this forever,” he said.
