In a breakthrough set to reshape the future of air combat, Chinese researchers claim to have nullified humanity’s final tactical advantage over artificial intelligence (AI) in dogfights: the ability to outmanoeuvre algorithms through unpredictable, high-intensity aerial acrobatics.
Detailed in a study published late last year, the method combines advanced infrared imaging with AI-driven predictive modelling to anticipate an opponent’s moves by detecting subtle wing-tail movements.
It is a development that could render even the most agile fighter jets – such as the US-made F-15 – virtually defenceless, according to the team of scientists from the Northwest Institute of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, based in the northwest city of Xianyang, which is a key research arm of Norinco, China’s biggest arms supplier.
Published in the December issue of Journal of Gun Launch & Control, the study addresses a critical flaw in existing AI air combat systems: their reliance on trajectory-based predictions, which struggle to account for sudden, non-linear manoeuvres executed by human pilots.
The Chinese team, led by senior engineer Lin Zhiwei, bypassed this limitation by focusing on the physical mechanics of enemy aircraft.
Using a modified YOLOv8 neural network, the system analyses infrared imagery to detect millimetre-level deformations in an opponent’s control surfaces – such as the F-15’s 1.5-metre (five-foot) rudder or two-metre (6.5-foot) elevator – during flight.
